State of the Union: Job Market Q1 2025

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2. I know I’ve already written about this topic (staffing company earnings reports) but now that most of them have completed q1 2025 earnings figured it’d be a good topic to re-write about.

3. In this issue:

   1. Why you need to follow public staffing companies to get a pulse on what’s going on

   2. The top 15 and their earnings reports

   3. My take on what happened in q4, q1, and the 2025 outlook

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If you want to know what shape the job market is in, stop looking at headlines and start looking at staffing firms.

They’re the ones closest to the action. They sit at the intersection of supply and demand for talent, and they’re the first to feel the pulse of economic shifts long before it shows up in government data or in the news.

Staffing firms are in the room. They talk to hiring managers every day. They know who’s opening new reqs, who’s pausing, and who’s laying off. They know which budgets are real and which are fluff. They hear the objections. They catch the signals.

And here’s what makes them different from every other source: they don’t make a dollar unless a hire actually happens.

That makes them the ultimate truth tellers. If staffing firms are doing well, companies are hiring. If they’re contracting, the job market is under pressure. There’s no room for speculation. Just deal flow.

That’s why I watch them.

Each quarter, the top public staffing firms report earnings, guidance, and commentary on their client base. Inside those numbers is a complete picture of how the U.S. job market is moving across healthcare, tech, finance, education, logistics, and manufacturing.

This quarter, I reviewed performance and commentary from the top 15 staffing firms in the U.S.

What I found paints a clear picture of what’s actually happening out there.

Here’s the breakdown.

Recruiting companies are the ultimate leading indicator. They don’t guess what hiring plans might be. They get it straight from the source: the hiring manager. And they only make money when companies actually hire.

That means if staffing firms are growing, it’s because companies are hiring. If they’re contracting, it’s because hiring demand has dried up. Simple as that.

So when the top 15 U.S. staffing firms publish earnings reports, they’re not just giving you financials. They’re telling you exactly where the labor market stands across tech, healthcare, finance, industrial, education, and more.

Here’s the breakdown:

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Company by Company Breakdown

1. Allegis Group
Privately held and still the largest in the U.S. by market share. Revenue in Q4 2024 was down mid single digits as IT and industrial hiring slowed, but Q1 2025 stabilized. Their TEKsystems division (IT staffing) and Aerotek/Actalent (engineering/industrial) managed to outperform the market. With a 5.3% U.S. market share, Allegis is still the heavyweight. They're not just holding steady, they're winning share while others retreat.

2. Aya Healthcare
Aya remains the dominant force in healthcare staffing, even as the COVID era travel nurse boom fades. Q4 and Q1 saw double digit declines, particularly in travel nursing. But strike staffing and locum tenens (temporary doctors) were strong. Aya is expanding its platform and rumored to be in acquisition mode. Still one of the few giants with room to run.

3. Randstad
Q4 2024 global revenue dropped 5.5% organically. But Q1 showed a smaller decline at 4.2%, suggesting the worst may be over. U.S. business stabilized, but Europe continues to underperform. The company is in cost cutting mode and pivoting its strategy into four verticals. Clients are cautious but returning to the table.

4. Express Employment Professionals
A franchised industrial staffing giant with over 800 U.S. locations. Q4 was down, mostly due to demand softening in warehousing and logistics. But the decline was manageable. Q1 showed early signs of bounceback in temp industrial orders. They're expanding into skilled trades, which should provide upside in construction and manufacturing as the year progresses.

5. Insight Global
Focused on IT and professional staffing, Insight was hit hard by the tech slowdown in Q4. Revenue fell mid single digits. Q1 was more stable. Clients are reactivating paused digital transformation work and pushing forward with cybersecurity projects. They're expanding into consulting, managed services, and project outsourcing to drive future growth.

6. ManpowerGroup
Q4 2024 showed a 5% drop in revenue with continued softness in Europe. The U.S. business showed slight growth in Q1 2025. Experis IT is still under pressure, but their RPO and MSP units are stable. Manpower is focused on riding out the downturn and protecting margins.

7. Robert Half